Research

I have been inside the ring - not merely in a front-row seat - of most sovereign debt restructurings since the global financial crisis. Along with colleagues, I have put pen to paper about some practical ideas to make them better for all parties, as well as engaged in a few debates. This work is collected here.

Bendybonds¶

In Prefer To Defer: Has the Time For ‘Bendybonds’ Finally Come?, written with Benjamin Heller and published in Capital Markets Law Journal, we discuss corporate hybrid-debt inspired sovereign bonds that would have deferrable cashflows. Some of these ideas are now starting to take concrete shape through the work of the London Coalition.

Product Of All Fears¶

In The Product Of All Fears, I document a (to me, anyway) striking fact that the IMF has consistently, very significantly underestimated the future GDP sizes of economies undergoing debt restructurings. No wonder creditors clamour for contingent instruments to return at least some of this sandbagged value back to them, if things predictably "“turn out well”.

Not So Fast¶

In About That Sovereign Debt Restructuring Sweetener..., written with Benjamin Heller and published in the Financial Times, we cast shade on an alleged “alternative to contingent upside instruments” put forward by the esteemed Lee Buchheit and Gregory Makoff.

Critique Of IMF Technical Note On Argentina¶

In On The IMF Staff Technical Note On Debt Sustainability of Argentina, I seethe at the unprecedented, tendentious and, ultimately, deliciously futile effort by the IMF staff to ingratiate themselves with the Peronist government of Argentina during the 2020 restructuring negotiations.